Nigeria Petrol Price Hits ₦1,245/Litre: What the Iran War Fuel Crisis Means for Toyota Car Owners

By UsedToyotaCars.com — 29 March 2026

What Happened

Nigeria's petrol price has risen sharply four times in March 2026, reaching ₦1,245 per litre by 21 March, following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran on 28 February 2026. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, which now supplies a significant share of Nigeria's domestic fuel, confirmed each of the successive price increases, citing global crude oil prices that surged from around $65 per barrel before the conflict to above $110 per barrel by mid-March.

The war triggered Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting roughly 20 percent of global oil supply. The disruption sent shockwaves through fuel markets worldwide. Nigeria, despite being Africa's largest crude producer, imports most of its refined petroleum products and remains directly exposed to international price moves.

Four Price Hikes in One Month

The Dangote Refinery raised its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) four times in March alone:

From approximately ₦774 to ₦875 per litre — early March
To ₦995 per litre
To ₦1,175 per litre
To ₦1,245 per litre — effective from midnight, 21 March 2026

In a statement, the Refinery attributed the increases to global oil market volatility, surging freight costs (tanker costs reportedly rising from around $800,000 to roughly $3.5 million per shipment), and the absence of discounted crude — Nigerian crude is still purchased at international benchmark prices.

Dangote Refinery CEO David Bird noted at a 9 March 2026 press conference that despite the hikes, Nigeria's pump price of $0.88 per litre remains significantly below the global average of $1.32 per litre. The Refinery stated that domestic prices have risen by 35 to 40 percent since the crisis began — lower than Cambodia (68%) and Vietnam (49%), but still representing a serious cost increase for Nigerian motorists and transport operators.

Economist Paul Alaje of SPM Professionals warned on Channels Television as early as 3 March that prices could climb to ₦1,000 plus per litre by end of April if the conflict continued — a threshold already breached by 21 March.

Nigeria in the Global Fuel Shock

At least 85 countries reported petrol price increases following the Iran conflict, according to Al Jazeera, citing Global Petrol Prices data. Nigeria's petrol price increase of 35 percent ranks third globally after Cambodia (68%) and Vietnam (50%), according to the same data. For diesel, Nigeria's jump of 78.3% is among the steepest in the world, behind only the Philippines (81.6%) and ahead of Malaysia (57.9%), according to BusinessToday on 29 March 2026.

Bloomberg reported on 16 March that Nigeria's annual inflation rate had eased marginally in February — the calm before the storm. Transport costs and commodity prices are expected to rise further as the full fuel price increases cascade through the supply chain. The Associated Press reported on 28 March that a Lagos taxi driver named Adegbola Isaac had seen his daily profits largely wiped out, with petrol hitting ₦1,350 per litre at some stations by that date — above the Dangote official price, reflecting retail markup and logistics costs.

Several African governments — South Africa, Ghana, and Kenya among them — have formally approached the Dangote Refinery for supply contracts as the Iran war continues to disrupt global supply chains, Bloomberg and Channels Television reported.

Impact on Toyota Car Owners in Nigeria

Toyota is Nigeria's dominant vehicle brand. The Toyota Corolla, Camry, Hilux, Hiace, and Land Cruiser are the most common vehicles on Nigerian roads, used by private owners, ride-hailing drivers (Uber and Bolt), commercial transport operators, and government fleets alike. Nigeria is a left-hand drive market.

For a Toyota Corolla owner in Lagos filling a typical 50-litre tank, the fuel cost at ₦1,245 per litre is approximately ₦62,250 per fill — compared to roughly ₦46,150 per fill at the pre-crisis rate of ₦923 per litre. That is an additional ₦16,100 per fill, or approximately ₦64,000 per month for a driver refuelling four times monthly.

Ride-hailing and commercial Toyota operators are hit harder still. A Toyota Hiace minibus driver covering daily routes in Lagos or Abuja, consuming 30 to 40 litres per day, now faces daily fuel costs of ₦37,350 to ₦49,800 — a direct reduction in take-home income unless fares are increased. Transport fares across Nigeria are expected to rise in response, according to Channels Television.

Toyota hybrid models — including the Corolla Hybrid — offer significantly better fuel economy than their petrol equivalents, typically consuming 4 to 5 litres per 100 km versus 8 to 10 litres per 100 km for a standard petrol Corolla. At current prices, that difference translates to a daily saving of ₦2,500 to ₦5,000 for high-mileage drivers.

Why Fuel Efficiency Matters More Now

The crisis has sharpened buyer attention on fuel economy. Globally, AutoNews reported on 18 March that European EV dealers were seeing record sales inquiries as petrol prices climbed. In Nigeria, where the EV charging infrastructure is minimal, the more practical near-term option is a fuel-efficient petrol or hybrid Toyota.

The used Toyota Corolla Hybrid and Toyota Prius have long been available in Nigeria as foreign-used ("tokunbo") imports. The current fuel price environment makes them considerably more attractive on a running-cost basis than a standard petrol model. According to 234Drive, both the Corolla Hybrid and the Toyota Prius are already listed for sale in Nigeria on platforms like Jiji.ng, and are noted for their "bulletproof" engineering and strong resale value.

For buyers on a budget, older petrol Toyota Corollas (2009 to 2014 models) remain the dominant choice at ₦3.5 million to ₦9 million, due to parts availability and mechanic familiarity. But the gap in monthly running costs between hybrid and petrol variants has widened substantially since late February 2026.

Outlook

The Dangote Refinery's fourth price hike on 21 March was not the last. Brent crude reached $112 per barrel by the end of that week, according to Channels Television — significantly above Nigeria's $64.85 budget benchmark. Further price adjustments are expected in April unless there is a material de-escalation of the conflict or a significant release of strategic reserves.

Wits University economists writing on 24 March noted that Nigeria faces a double-edged challenge: it is a crude oil producer that could benefit from higher prices, but the gains may not reach ordinary consumers before further inflation and transport cost increases bite. The Dangote Refinery remains the most important buffer for domestic fuel prices, but it operates on international market rates and has limited room to absorb ongoing crude price spikes indefinitely.

For Toyota car owners in Nigeria, the practical advice from transport analysts is consistent: limit discretionary driving, consolidate trips, and, where affordable, consider fuel-efficient models for the next vehicle purchase.

Nigeria Petrol Price Hits ₦1,245/Litre: What the Iran War Fuel Crisis Means for Toyota Car Owners